Dangerously Reasonable - The Mallen Baker Show

President Donald Trump is cancelling the tariffs on a number of Canadian goods as some of his candidates in the mid-term elections have sounded the alarm for how badly they have impacted their own communities. It's just one reflection of how reality is coming back to bite him where it hurts, and how he, and his team, are now panicking at the increasingly visible consequences on the horizon. And it stands as yet another major contrast between the erratic inhabitant of the White House and Canada's Mark Carney. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday October 23rd 2026: The question of who interfered with Ukraine's Starlink connection has continued - and it looks like it could have been the biggest mistake of Elon Musk's entire career; Protests erupt in Venezuela demanding a return to democracy, in the same week as the details of Trump's Venezuelan oil deal have leaked out. And it's not happy reading if you're Venezuelan. Or just, not corrupt; Also, I respond to a viewer's question on the worst case scenario Trump could follow in the mid-term elections.

Two things are going to explode after the mid-term elections have finally taken place - assuming that the results are anything like what the polls are predicting. One - President Donald Trump will launch a wide array of attempts to block, deny, obfuscate and overturn the result. And two - Trump administration members will escalate a period of savage infighting that, to all reports, has already started. What will emerge as the outcome of all that is as uncertain as it was when the Trump rioters were starting their attempt to break into the Capitol Building. Let's discuss.

The weekend saw an intensity of rioting that shocked even a French public that is very used to street protests as a way of life. President Donald Trump said that it was all about immigration - but then that's what he says about any problem on the continent of Europe. The reality is that it's a combination of popular discontent, a hard crash of public expectations versus massive government debt, and also the deliberate stoking of the fires by malign external forces. All those factors are influencing most European countries right now - arguably France is just the canary in the coal mine. Let's discuss.

Two stories show how the imperial Trump presidency is going to continue to shake the world over the next two years, regardless of what happens in the coming mid-term elections. One - his attack on Europe for working to reduce its dependency on the US. He wants to use leverage as a weapon, and he will fight hard to prevent his victims from reducing his leverage. And two - his wish to achieve a grand deal with his chosen peer group - Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping - to foist a settlement on Ukraine without its involvement, and where it is left with only deeply unpalatable options. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday October 16th 2026: President Trump responds to Ukraine's defiance of his demand for them to stop bombing Russian oil - and it's rather tame. For now; Indications are growing that corporate CEOs are gearing up for the moment where they can declare to the world that they never supported Trump, and they just wanted to get back to business as usual; India is seeing a major citizens movement pushing back against an extraordinary move to purge the voting rolls, in a manner Donald Trump could likely only dream of; And Albertans are about to go to the polls to decide whether to consider the province leaving Canada.

President Donald Trump came out this week as an agent of Putin's Russia, and adversary of Ukraine, and did so while demanding that Ukraine stop hitting Russian oil refineries. If it didn't, the US would likely withdraw all support. And it paused support for long enough to show what that would feel like. President Zelensky and Ukraine stared that possibility in the face - and went back to bombing refineries anyway. And he gave a frank interview where he plainly and simply spoke the truth about the current situation, causing panic in places you would least hope to see it. Let's discuss.

Having threatened dire consequences if Ukraine didn't agree to President Donald Trump's demand that they stop attacked Russian oil refineries, over the last couple of days we've seen signs that those threats have turned into some action - maybe just temporary, to demonstrate to the Ukrainians what they stand to lose - maybe the beginning of a permanent withdrawal. This development, following Trump's breathtaking diesel deal with President Putin, lays out the US / Russia alliance in the starkest possible detail. What will Ukraine and its allies do about it? Let's discuss.

The top military leader of NATO just openly explained the alliance's strategy for dealing with possible Russian incursions into the territory of a NATO member. It's a construct that has obviously been carefully put together - but maybe not solely as the best military strategy for dealing with Putin. More like, the most that could have the faintest chance of sticking given that squatting at the heart of the alliance is one President Donald Trump. Let's discuss.

Following his shock deal with Russia on diesel, President Donald Trump followed up by making it starkly clear that he is going to use that deal to try to force Ukraine to give up its most powerful weapon against Russia. Ostensibly, it's to lower world diesel prices (which it won't) and it serves the convenient purpose of seeking to deflect blame for high gas prices from Trump's war on Iran. But longer term, it all seems to be about forcing Ukraine to blunt it's attacks, or else give up the last vestiges of US support. Both choices leave Ukraine weaker than before - but just one will force the former allies of the US to make a stand. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday October 9th 2026. President Trump acts tough on Iran, but can't cover the fact that the US has been mostly running away from them in the last couple of weeks. The US finds itself similarly in retreat over the one-sided deals it tried to force African countries into in return for health aid. And the protests in France this week highlight the huge crisis that is coming for the entire developed world if it doesn't pay attention and bit the bullet earlier rather than later.

The polls continue to give worse and worse news for Trump and the GOP over the coming mid-term elections, and now the signs are all over the place that panic is setting in. This involves President Trump posting constantly on social media, firing off in all directions, picking absurd fights, focusing on everything except the issues that seem to matter most for Americans. But in the course of all the thrashing about, there are signs that desperation is also taking a potential darker turn. Let's discuss.

One woman died from an unspecified illness in Russia - which wouldn't be a point of concern except that she worked in a laboratory that deals with the plague, and post-Covid there are concerns about just what sort of work might be being done, by a Russian state known to be involved with bioweapons research, to modify such bacteria - maybe into a form that could shape a new global pandemic. The odds are against that - but the incident is revealing just how little we learned from Covid, and how badly wrong it could actually go in the age of President Trump, Vladimir Putin and the movements across the world that are inspired by one or both of them. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday October 2nd 2026. The G20 trade ministers revolt against the Trump administration's demands that they line up behind America's trade agenda. It turns out that abusing allies turns them into ex-allies. Britain's new prime minister has electrified the political climate in the United Kingdom with just a speech - but what's really changed, and why might wider lessons be applicable? And Robert F Kennedy Junior's MAHA movement continues to fall out of love with the Trump administration - and it's now got to the point where you could see them finally parting ways soon after the mid-terms are over.

NATO members have just discovered that the Trump administration has set up a meeting to discuss the future of the alliance, and has pointedly NOT invited some of its key members, including the United Kingdom and France. This seems to be the latest move in President Trump's plan to punish any allies who refuse to behave as vassal states, while rewarding those that have been more compliant. Alongside Pete Hegseth's 'state of the force' speech yesterday, and the demand that Europeans release diesel stocks for America's convenience - the emerging picture is clear that we are in for a rocky couple of months. Let's discuss.

Recently, President Donald Trump has increased the pace of his attempt to rehabilitate Vladimir Putin's Russia in the world community. To all appearances, this seems driven by an increasingly urgent wish to strike lucrative deals with it, perhaps recognising that the options will narrow after a mid-term election setback, should that be imminent. So all the talk about needing to get peace with Ukraine first seems to be on the slide. And he has come up with a new feeble cover for such an act - even just days after having signed into law a bill that was intended to toughen sanctions. So what's going on? Let's discuss.

Two things in one week. One - European countries have been meeting together to look at how they respond - outside of NATO - to Russia's increasing hybrid warfare against them. And two - a leaked report from the Belgian Foreign Ministry reveals how they see, and are responding to, US President Donald Trump internally. Saying the things that they really don't want to go public on, and which give the context for why they are forming an alliance that sidesteps the Atlantic treaty. But can a Europe which is gearing up for a new wave of internal conflict really act in concord against a clear and present danger? It's not clear they can. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday September 25th, 2026: China's Xi Jinping has his big state visit hosted by President Trump. Almost none of the important things were said out loud. Trump invites Vladimir Putin to the G20 meeting in November, setting up a unintended opportunity for President Zelensky to exploit. And Trump calls on the world to abandon the International Criminal Court as his administration gets ready to impose sanctions. And it promises to be the first test of how much his power is fading.

The day after the deal was signed between President Donald Trump, Denmark and Greenland, and we've had time to absorb the full text of the agreement and the differing narratives that have circulated in its wake. The MAGA narrative is obvious, and probably required - 'Trump won'. But the other narrative is remarkable for how pervasive it is, how unquestioned it has been across multiple media outlets, and how fragile a hold on reality it seems to have. Having touched on this briefly before the deal was signed, there's a lot more to explore now it's done. So let's discuss.

Today was a helter skelter of foreign policy set pieces for President Trump, with the United Nations General Assembly in full swing. But tomorrow is when the real action begins, when China's Xi Jinping arrives for his state visit to the US. Relations between the two competing giants are fraught, but also the Trump team have been almost uniquely restrained. And that's because - for now, at least, President Xi is playing Trump with a degree of skill, backed by strength, that no other leader has yet managed. Let's discuss.

President Donald Trump has announced an imminent deal between Denmark, Greenland and the United States - and that has been confirmed in outline by the other parties. Some are presenting this as Trump getting what he always wanted, others that it is a neutral deal that will remove all the energy and drive behind Trump's obsession with buying the territory, or even taking it by force. But given recent history, neither story seems likely - and it could well be that Denmark and Greenland are about to make a historic mistake. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday 18th September 2026. President Trump has one of the worst weeks of his second term as all the big things come home to roost at the same time. Also, since Vladimir Putin shows no sign of ending his war on Ukraine in order to do deals with the US, Trump considers striking deals with him anyway, even as the war continues on. And Congress goes home a day early - purely to prevent articles of impeachment against defence secretary Pete Hegseth from being debated.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke today at the European Parliament, just one day after EC President Ursula von der Leyen called for Canada to become the first 'associate member' of the European Union. Needless to say, this news - which, at first glance has nothing to do with him, went down extremely badly with US President Donald Trump, who remarked that if he decides this is a hostile act, he could end all trade with Europe, or Canada, or tariffs. Or something. But how significant is today's embrace across the Atlantic, and why is this just the second step in a longer, inevitable process? Let's discuss.

A number of prominent Republicans have turned from Donald Trump and his family in disgust. Not because of Trump's support for Putin over Ukraine. Not because of his disastrous war in Iran. No - because a Putin-linked Oligarch funded a two-day wedding after-party for Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr. This was a blatant display of the most massive conflict of interest - and it underlined once again what we have known from day one of the second Trump term. Trump is an adversary of Ukraine, not an ally. Let's discuss.

All weekend, the talk has been about the AI apocalypse, with the most well-known and powerful AI company leaders letting it be known that they favour a slowdown so the technology doesn't get out of control. It turns out that President Donald Trump has no time for such talk, he's obviously better informed on such things that the AI CEOs, and anyway - there's one driving reason why he doesn't want to slow down. And if it means accelerating towards aforementioned apocalypse, well, so be it. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday September 11th 2026: The Iranians take actions to escalate the war with the US, even as Trump is trying to keep it quiet. JD Vance lays out his stall for his shot at the presidency in 2028 as echoes of politics-as-usual can just faintly be heard. Everybody is talking about whether AI is soon about to end all human life on the planet - which would put the other items into context. And Germany lets it be known it is not happy with President Trump's promotion of the far-right AfD party's recent success.

President Donald Trump spoke for two hours at his unusual midterm elections conference - and the big headline was that he promised to pay every adult citizen of the United States $5,000 should Republicans win both the Senate and the House. Yes, this is obvious and naked bribery. Yes, it should be illegal if anyone's enforcing such laws any more. But really it's part of a pattern - a promise that's made that is clearly going to fail by design. And while it's been truly massive in terms of grabbing attention, it is much more a sign of desperation than it is a winning strategy. Let's discuss.

Today saw the imposition of Canada's retaliatory tariffs on the United States in the latest phase of its trade war with Donald Trump's America. In response, he has blustered and insulted, and today launched a broadside against Canadian aerospace firm Bombardier. But those covering the dispute as being about trade are missing the essential core of the conflict - which explains why the recent deal always had to fail, and the nature of the real struggle facing Prime Minister Mark Carney and Canadians over the coming two years. Let's discuss.

The AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt was not unexpected - polls have been forecasting the likely victory for months. But it remains shocking for what it represents. Because the AfD is not a populist like President Donald Trump, the clown show variety. Nor is it like Giorgia Meloni, the radical who detoxified the party into moderation. It is avowedly radical, and hostile to current Western attitudes to its core. And it has two big-picture implications that will resonate for the coming decade. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday September 4th 2026: The resignation of US Army secretary Dan Driscoll leaves Pete Hegseth exposed as more voices are raised against him - but could that actually make him the next MAGA presidential candidate? The US tells American space companies to consider avoiding a space conference being held by President Macron because the US wants to monopolise anything to do with space and France is to be considered a borderline enemy. And MAGA-lite Reform UK have their big reset day after difficult times, but find themselves in yet another almighty row. And this comes at a moment when the Trump administration, which they fashion themselves after, is gearing up to make life extremely difficult for Britain indeed.

The last few days have seen missiles exchanged once again between the United States and Iran. For all President Trump's threats to escalate and hit Iran 'harder than ever', he obviously is keen for the outburst to subside. And that's because the strategies have shifted into one where stalemate is the underpinning context, and each side is pursuing the course that they believe gives them the most advantage. Let's discuss.

The United States grabbed its turn to host the G20 summits in order to boast to the world about how wonderful its economic policies are, and to encourage everyone else to follow its lead, to submit to its rules, to experience the freedom of subservience. They may not have used those exact words, but not far off. By now, however, the rest of the world is looking to move on. Some, like the G20, are quietly planning their own path distinct from the Donald Trump one. Others - well, there was another summit happening this week, one that is founded on the vision of a very different world order. Let's discuss.

President Donald Trump shamelessly declared almost immediately that he aimed to get a big slice of Venezuela's oil for the United States once it had removed former dictator Nicolas Maduro. But not only is he finding the practical reality of that oil grab more difficult than he had anticipated, his administration is having to try to manipulate the creation of some semblance of democracy in the country in such a way that doesn't immediately reverse the plunder. And it raises questions about what level of democracy the US will seek to allow, and how it will stop leaders it finds 'unhelpful', such as Maria Corina Machado, from leading it - and just how badly it might all go wrong. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday August 28th 2026: The US pushes NATO alliance members to declare their loyalty to Donald Trump, even as different stories emerge over the secret mission to talk to Moscow. President Trump signs an executive order to rename the Lake of Ontario while pretending it means something - but could the trade negotiations be restarted after a US climbdown? And AI firm Anthropic wins its lawsuit against Pete Hegseth's Pentagon over the retribution campaign being waged against it. Also, just a passing observation following the death of Dolly Parton.

John Ratcliffe, CIA Director, just made a surprise visit to Moscow. Nobody will say why, and speculation turned immediately to the idea he was there to push Putin on moving towards making peace with Ukraine. But that seems like wishful thinking, compared to the other likely explanations - one of which is supported by the suggestion of anonymous briefers, one of which is very much in line with this week's events so far. President Donald Trump has denied that anything significant is going on whatsoever, which is as big a tell that something is up as you could possibly need. Let's discuss.

President Donald Trump really wants to make the decisive move that will bring Iran to heel, and end the war there in triumph. But his best chance is blocked by China. And he really wants to be able to bully all the former allies of the US into doing whatever he wants, whenever he wants it. But his power to do so is being exposed as weak by Canada. As his frustration at his impotence increases, we are seeing more noise and drama, but none of it can hide the fact that his strength is ebbing away before our eyes. Let's discuss.

The trade deal, which had been described as 'nearly there', fell apart. And Mark Carney explained after the event, it did so because a last minute insertion of demands that intruded onto Canada's sovereignty, as well as being one-sided. This is no surprise - it is the Trump playbook of the last two years. But Mark Carney went further, and called the US campaign 'war'. And this is the plain language that so far none others are daring to replicate. Perhaps it's time they did. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday August 21st 2026: Canada's Mark Carney is head to head with the Trump administration as attempts are made to get a last minute trade deal over the line. But is there more to it than meets the eye? Disney is fighting an apparent punitive censorship push by the Trump-friendly regulator, the FCC. And the US sanctions more top officials from the International Criminal Court - which could become a real test case in how many countries are going to be prepared to stand up to Trump's mafia behaviour.

The war in Iran has been at a standstill for months, with traffic trickling through the Strait of Hormuz, and no real impetus for negotiations. You should expect that, in such a situation, eventually people will change their approach to seek to gain a breakthrough advantage. And over the last week, we've seen this being signalled by President Donald Trump, and also by the Iranian leadership. The nature of the emerging plans is different, and you have to imagine that the chances of success are likewise. Let's discuss.

We've seen the bluster and the bullying of President Donald Trump in the headlines, but there is a quiet daily push going on much more under the surface. It is all the more insidious because it is little noticed, part of the daily friction of life in Trump World, and more to the point - it works. It is legal. It is unaccountable. And it is shaping decisions in all sorts of ways that many simply didn't see coming. Particularly focused on South America, as Trump claims the entire Western Hemisphere as his sphere of influence. Let's discuss.

President Trump has the appearance of a man furious at his lack of options - to the degree where he is thrashing out at whatever is within reach. So he threatened US ally Oman with being bombed if it 'gets in the way'. He slated ally South Korea because it declined to help him in Iran, even though its forces are very much needed on its own front line. However, he praised their enemy, North Korea. And, at times, he has praised as well the Iranian leadership. What is anyone serious to make of it all? Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday August 14th 2026. President Trump is demanding expressions of loyalty from NATO members before deciding where US troops will be withdrawn. Is this the moment where it really gets ugly? 150 thousand Canadians are demanding that the US ambassador to their country Pete Hoekstra be booted out, as Alberta squares up to an independence referendum. The UK's MAGA-lite populist Nigel Farage wins his by-election against a man wearing a bin on his head - and astonishingly that seems not to have solved his problems. And various people are asking - what could every replace Trump's press secretary Karoline Leavitt, who is standing down?I have a suggestion. Let's discuss.

We just learned that Trump switched planes to fly out of the Turkey NATO summit, and he did so under the cover of a catering truck. There's one detail to this that nobody is commenting on - and a wider context that is likewise not getting attention, even though it's absolutely key to the dynamic of the Iran war, and why it's going the way it is. Let's discuss.

Various people in the know have said that President Donald Trump has not given up on his ambitions to get Greenland. And so we can see, as an oil company with strong connections to the president has been preparing to drill for oil there without the needed permission from the Greenlandic authorities. It's exactly the sort of pushing the system, asserting American privilege to do whatever they want, that could be part of Trump's battering ram approach. Interestingly, the Gandalv substack today published a very detailed scenario of how a US takeover of Greenland would be likely to proceed - and amongst the surprises contained within it are just how hard the US ultimately finds it to hold onto, and just how crucial a role Canada plays in deciding the outcome. Let's discuss. A link to the Gandalv scenario discussed in this video (paywalled, I'm afraid) https://gandalv.substack.com/p/what-a-us-war-with-europe-and-canada?r=1sy3z&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

There is nothing in the mere fact of having a dominantly powerful country in the world that says that it would be expected to act as an out-and-out bully. Indeed, before President Donald Trump, it was considered to be in the US strategic interest not to do that, for all that the US would certainly flex its muscles in specific instances reasonably often. The fact is that Trump had a completely different frame to any that came before - one based on the power dynamics of the playground and often profound misunderstandings of reality. Now, increasingly countries are reasserting the basic logic of geopolitics-as-usual, and rejecting Trump's frame. It is pushing him to the heights of fury as the techniques he assumed would always work, fail him over and over again. Let's discuss.