Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, associate senior policy fellow at ECFR and a fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution in Washington, to discuss a recent policy brief for ECFR, authored alongside Evren Balta, professor of international relations at Özyeğin University in Istanbul. In their brief, Aslı and Evren argue that Turkey is an “embedded outsider”. It maintains relations with Moscow and other Western adversaries, but is also a NATO state with the alliance’s second-largest army; it supports Ukraine and is technically an applicant for EU membership. And nowhere has this embedded outsider status been more apparent than at the NATO summit hosted by Recep Tayyip Erdogan in July. The Turkish president gave visiting leaders a Turkish-made revolver, loaded with live ammunition: a gift no one could accept from an ally no one can place. In this week’s episode, Mark and Aslı explore Turkey’s unique position in European and global politics. Together they discuss Turkish autonomy, its relationship with NATO, Russia and the EU, and how Europe can better engage with such a complex actor. How aligned—or misaligned—is Turkey with its Western allies? What role does it play in Ukrainian and Black Sea diplomacy? And to what extent does a shared agenda exist between Ankara and Europe? Bookshelf: An outsider within: The paradox of the Europe-Turkey relationship by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Evren Balta Theo of Golden by Allen Levi Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Kobzova, co-director of ECFR’s European Security programme, to discuss the mounting pressures facing Ukraine as it enters another wartime winter. Despite Ukraine’s success in disrupting Russian logistics and energy infrastructure, Russia has intensified its attacks on cities, energy networks and civilian targets, while Kyiv faces growing domestic political and economic strains. Jana explains how shortages of air-defence interceptors, political infighting, corruption investigations and economic challenges are converging at a particularly difficult moment for Ukraine. She also examines Russia’s escalating hybrid attacks across Europe and how Europeans can strengthen their resilience—and Ukraine’s defences. Together, Mark and Jana assess Ukraine’s ability to withstand these overlapping crises, the future of European support and the role Ukraine could play in Europe’s long-term security architecture. As Russia raises the pressure both on and off the battlefield, can Ukraine and its allies maintain the unity needed to hold the line? This podcast episode was recorded on September 16th 2026. Bookshelf Motherland: A Feminist History of Modern Russia, from Revolution to Autocracy, by Julia Ioffe. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Cary Fowler, founder and president of the Food Security Leadership Council and former US global food security envoy, and Jim O’Brien, ECFR distinguished visiting fellow and former US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs. As conflict, climate change and geopolitical fragmentation converge, there is a growing risk of a global food crisis. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to disrupt grain exports, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is restricting fertiliser shipments, and a potentially severe El Niño threatens drought and falling harvests across parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. These overlapping pressures will impact hundreds of millions of people who are already food insecure. While mechanisms are in place to mitigate the impact of food insecurity—for example, in 2022, the UN, the US, the EU and regional actors worked together to keep grain flowing from Ukraine and avert a broader catastrophe—many of the conditions that enabled cooperation then are weaker today. This has created a dangerous gap in global leadership. Together, Mark, Cary and Jim explore how a new international coalition could prevent millions more people from falling into hunger. They discuss the roles of Europe, the UN and major powers such as China, India and Russia; the case for humanitarian ceasefires covering grain exports and fertiliser shipments; and why food security should be treated as a central pillar of global security. Can governments overcome geopolitical rivalry to address a crisis that no one wants? How severe could the impact of El Niño become in already vulnerable regions? What would a ceasefire covering grain and fertiliser look like in practice? And can Europe coordinate a global response when other leaders are absent? This podcast episode was recorded on September 9th 2026. Bookshelf Not for the Faint of Heart: Lessons in Courage, Power and Persistence, Wendy Sherman The Growth of Biological Thought, Ernst Mayr The Big Bet, Michael Auerbach China’s Global Strategy under Xi Jinping, Steve Tsang and Olivia Cheung Against war, drought and hunger: A global coalition to prevent a food crisis, Cary Fowler, Jim O'Brien and Jana Kobzova Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Jana Puglierin, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Berlin office, in a World in 30 Minutes Emergency Room episode to discuss the latest in German politics. The AfD’s win in the small eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt was widely expected, but the scale of the result and the collapse of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) have still shocked Berlin. For the first time since the second world war, a far-right party is within reach of governing a German Bundesland. Jana unpacks the AfD’s possible paths to power, the pressure on Merz and his grand coalition, and what the result says about the far right’s continued rise in Europe. Why does an election in a state of two million people matter so much for a country of 84 million? Can the AfD govern without a formal coalition partner, and would CDU lawmakers break the historic “firewall” to make that possible? Why is the party still treated as beyond the pale, even as it leads national polls? And should Europe prepare for a Germany too absorbed in its own crisis to lead? This episode was recorded on September 7th 2026 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR's Middle East and North Africa programme, to unpack a volatile new chapter in the confrontation between the United States and Iran. After months of managed escalation, military strikes have resumed and President Donald Trump has launched an ambitious new sanctions package, dubbed an economic “D-Day”, aimed at squeezing Tehran into submission. Ellie argues that Washington has returned to a familiar strategy of maximum pressure, betting that unprecedented economic isolation and a blockade of Iranian exports will either force the regime to make major concessions or trigger domestic unrest. But Tehran appears determined to hold out, relying on sanctions-evasion networks, regional diplomacy and the belief that the US will struggle to sustain its campaign over the long term. As both sides continue limited military operations while keeping channels for negotiation open, the prospect of a comprehensive deal remains elusive. The conversation also explores the domestic pressures facing Iran's leadership, from a shrinking economy and growing public dissatisfaction to the threat of renewed nationwide protests. Mark and Ellie examine whether economic hardship could destabilise the regime, why Iranian leaders remain sceptical of American commitments and how internal politics in both Washington and Tehran are shaping the path ahead. Finally, they discuss the wider regional and European implications of the conflict. How are Gulf states positioning themselves between the US and Iran? What risks does the confrontation pose to global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz? And can European governments still play a meaningful diplomatic role as tensions rise and fears grow that the Iran conflict could become increasingly entangled with the war in Ukraine? This podcast episode was recorded on September 3rd 2026. Bookshelf Hillbilly Elegy, by J.D. Vance. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow at ECFR, to unpack a turbulent summer in Israel and the Palestinian territories. While Palestinian factions in Gaza have agreed in principle to decommission their weapons , the proposal faces significant obstacles, not least opposition from the Israeli government. Meanwhile settler violence is surging and settlement construction is spreading, redrawing the map faster than any negotiation could. Hugh explains why a sustainable ceasefire cannot rely on disarmament alone but requires a broader political process that addresses the future governance of Gaza and creates a pathway towards a two-state solution. He also explores why developments in the West Bank could prove just as decisive as those in Gaza, and what role Europe can play in responding to settlement expansion and growing instability. Against this backdrop, Israelis are preparing to head to the polls on October 27th . Mark and Hugh examine the state of the race, the challenge facing Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister and whether a new government would bring meaningful policy change, or simply a different style of leadership. How much do Gaza and the West Bank matter to Israeli voters? Could an opposition victory create space for greater pragmatism? And what would that mean for Europe's approach to the conflict? This podcast episode was recorded on August 24th 2026. Bookshelf The Revolutionaries: The Story of the Extremists Who Hijacked the 1970s, by Jason Burke. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Janka Oertel, director of ECFR’s DARE* initiative, and Andrew Small, head of ECFR’s Asia programme, to examine the growing impact of the “China shock 2.0” on Germany and Europe. A new wave of Chinese competition, driven by overcapacity and state-backed industrial strength, is hitting sectors such as car manufacturing, chemicals and machine tools. Germany is at the epicentre, with mounting job losses raising questions about Europe’s long-term economic resilience and competitiveness. The crisis is reshaping German politics, exposing government divisions and putting pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz ahead of September’s potentially divisive regional elections. Together, Mark, Janka and Andrew discuss the policy options being considered in Brussels and in European capitals—from emergency trade measures to new industrial strategies. Can Europe protect its industrial base without triggering a damaging escalation with China? Is Germany able to lead a coherent European response amid its own political turbulence? This podcast episode was recorded 12th August 2026. Bookshelf China Shock 2.0: The Cost of Germany’s Complacency, by Brad Setser and Sander Tordoir The art of the swarm: Systemic rivalry with China on European terms, by Andrew Small Dear Britain, by Annette Dittert [AS1]Just flagging as we usually have the exact date (or do we not want to do it this time?) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Jörg Lau, international correspondent at Die Zeit and Jana Puglierin, head of ECFR’s Berlin office, to explore the political turmoil in Germany ahead of an electoral autumn. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government is becoming increasingly unpopular: it faces collapsing approval ratings, growing tension within the governing coalition and mounting pressure from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). As regional elections approach, Jana argues that Germany’s traditional parties face difficult choices that could reshape the country’s political landscape, while Jörg discusses what the AfD’s rise means for Germany. A “firewall” has kept mainstream parties from cooperating with the far right in the post-war period—but Jörg reflects on the strain this is under, and whether the AfD’s first taste of regional power could transform German politics. Together, Mark, Jörg and Jana assess the prospects for Merz’s leadership, the future of the CDU and whether Germany’s political centre can withstand such pressure. Are established parties capable of renewing themselves? What happens if the AfD makes gains at the regional level? And what would prolonged instability in Berlin mean for Europe? This podcast episode was recorded on August 12th 2026. Bookshelf The Names, by Florence Knapp The Nights Are Quiet in Tehran, by Shida Bazyar The Invite, by Olivia Wilde Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Adriana Abdenur, a Brazilian policy expert and co-president of the Global Fund for a New Economy, and Jorge Castañeda, former foreign minister of Mexico and professor at Sciences Po, to explore debates about development and ideas of strategic autonomy across Latin America. Jorge explains why China’s role is varied across the region, arguing that Mexico and much of Central America remain deeply constrained by their economic ties to the US. Adriana discusses Brazil’s long tradition of strategic autonomy, describing how policymakers engage with China as both an economic partner and a source of ideas on development, technology and global governance. Together, Mark, Adriana and Jorge explore how intensifying US-China competition is reshaping the region’s choices. Can Latin American countries balance relations with both powers? Is China a model, a market or simply another partner in a multipolar world? And what does strategic autonomy look like in an increasingly coercive geopolitical environment? This podcast episode was recorded on July 31st 2026. Bookshelf Latin American Foreign Policies in the New World Order: The Active Non-Alignment Option, by Carlos Ominami, Jorge Heine and Carlos Fortín Manifesto Antropófago (Cannibal Manifesto), by Oswald de Andrade Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by LuHan Gabel, associate director of the Ideas Workshop at the Open Society Foundations; Ooi Kee Beng, political historian and executive director of the Penang Institute; and Chelsea Nguyen, research assistant in the Department of International History at the London School of Economics. LuHan highlights how young people in China are increasingly questioning the meaning of development and modernity beyond material progress. Kee Beng reflects on Malaysia’s complex relationship with China, arguing that their growing engagement is reconnecting South-East Asia to older historical patterns of regional interaction. Chelsea explains how, in Vietnam, attitudes towards China have shifted dramatically since the covid-19 pandemic, with young people becoming more curious about Chinese technology and society. Together, Mark, LuHan, Kee Beng and Chelsea explore whether a post-Western, rather than anti-Western, generation is taking shape across the region. How did the covid-19 pandemic reshape perceptions of China in South-East Asia? Which aspects of Chinese modernity resonate most with younger generations? Is China becoming a new reference point for development and aspiration? And what do these shifts mean for Europe’s role in an increasingly multipolar world? This podcast episode was recorded on July 10th 2026. Bookshelf A Maritime Vietnam: From Earliest Times to the Nineteenth Century, by Tana Li State Building in Cold War Asia: Comrades and Competitors on the Sino-Vietnamese Border, by Qingfei Yin Border Country, by Raymond Williams The Scythian Empire: Central Eurasia and the Birth of the Classical Age from Persia to China, by Christopher I. Beckwith Adrift in the South, by Xiao Hai Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Loubna El Amine, lecturer in political theory at King’s College London and affiliate of the Lau China Institute, and Cobus van Staden, head of research at the China-Global South Project. They draw on insights from Africa and the Middle East to examine how younger generations in these regions view China, Europe and the US, and together they discuss the new “China-native generation”. Cobus explains why many young Africans increasingly associate China with modernity, technological progress and economic opportunity, while Loubna posits that, in the Middle East, China is often viewed less as an aspirational model. Instead, China has become more of a counterweight to US influence—it is a relatively neutral actor and potential balancing force in the Middle East’s changing geopolitical landscape. Together, Mark, Cobus and Loubna explore whether a new post-Western, rather than anti-Western, generation is emerging. They discuss the political consequences of China’s growing presence, the legacy of colonialism and the challenges of building intellectual and economic connections beyond traditional Western frameworks. How is China changing ideas of development across Africa? Why does it occupy such a different place in the Middle Eastern political imagination? Can South-South partnerships create new pathways for growth and influence? And what do these changes mean for Europe’s relationships throughout the world? This podcast episode was recorded on July 10th 2026. Bookshelf How China Escaped the Poverty Trap by Yuen Yuen Ang Fire in Every Direction by Tarek Baconi Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, secretary general of ASD Europe and special adviser to ECFR’s European Security programme, and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, deputy head of ECFR’s Warsaw office and policy fellow, to discuss what the outcome of the NATO summit in Ankara means for Europe’s security. They draw on ECFR’s recent policy brief “Making defence European again” to assess whether the alliance has emerged stronger—or simply avoided a crisis. European leaders left Ankara relieved that US president Donald Trump has reaffirmed US support for NATO and avoided announcing major troop withdrawals, but fundamental questions about Washington’s long-term commitment remain unresolved. Mark, Camille and Marta explore how Europe can strengthen its own defence capabilities while maintaining NATO as the cornerstone of collective security. Can Europe build the military capabilities it still lacks? How should responsibilities be divided between NATO, the EU and smaller coalitions of willing states? What would a more credible European nuclear deterrent look like? And can Europe strengthen its own defence without weakening the transatlantic alliance? This podcast episode was recorded on July 9th 2026. Bookshelf · The Sleepwalkers by Christopher Clark · The Great Delusion by John J. Mearsheimer Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office and senior policy fellow, and Jeremy Cliffe, ECFR’s editorial director and senior policy fellow, to discuss Marine Le Pen’s decision to run in France’s 2027 presidential election. After a Paris appeal court ruling rescinded her ban from holding public office, Le Pen has reasserted leadership of the far-right National Rally (RN) and sidelined Jordan Bardella, who was widely expected to lead the party into the 2027 election. Her announcement has led to rivals across the centre and the left recalibrating their strategies in an already volatile political landscape. Together, Mark, Célia and Jeremy explore how Le Pen’s candidacy changes France’s electoral outlook. They discuss whether she is a stronger candidate than Bardella, how French political parties are preparing for an election that RN enters as the favourite, and they draw on ECFR research to examine what an RN presidency could mean in practice. Would a Le Pen government seek confrontation with Brussels? How might it reshape France’s approach to migration, the EU budget and European integration? Could nationalist governments across Europe really cooperate? And how would a Le Pen presidency impact relations with Ukraine, the US and France’s European allies? This podcast episode was recorded on July 8th 2026. Bookshelf Marie Antoinette by Stefan Zweig Muskism by Quinn Slobodian and Ben Tarnoff If Bardella wins: Scenarios for a far-right presidency in France by Célia Belin, Jeremy Cliffe, Camille Lons and Constance Victor Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard speaks to Mike Kuiken, vice chair of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, and Randy Schriver, chair of the commission and former US assistant secretary of defence for Indo-Pacific security affairs, about US-China relations in this period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. The war in Iran and Russia’s war against Ukraine are raising questions about the balance between the Indo-Pacific and other global theatres. Together, Mark, Mike and Randy discuss the implications of China’s support for Russia and Iran, competition in emerging technologies such as AI, biotechnology and quantum computing, and whether the United Nations could be an arena for strategic rivalry. How is the conflict in the Middle East affecting America’s Indo-Pacific strategy? How would a crisis over Taiwan impact global semiconductor supply chains? And what do these developments mean for Europe? This podcast episode was recorded on April 23rd 2026. Bookshelf Freedom’s forge by Arthur Herman The Island at the Center of the World by Russell Shorto Acquired Wall-e Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It is ten years since Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, and the country is once again facing political upheaval. Keir Starmer has resigned as prime minister after his Labour rival Andy Burnham’s decisive victory in the Makerfield by-election. At the same time, ECFR has released new research which suggests that the public view on Brexit has evolved significantly—despite much of the political debate still being rooted in the divisions of 2016. This week, Mark Leonard speaks with Marcus Roberts, CEO of Mandate Research and longtime Labour strategist, about how attitudes towards Brexit have changed and what this means for Britain’s political future. A decade on from Brexit, British politics remains turbulent, but public opinion is changing in ways that many politicians have failed to recognise. Bookshelf ECFR policy brief: Brexit isn’t working: British voters are ready for a European future This podcast was recorded on June 24th 2026 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Julien Barnes-Dacey welcomes Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Saudi Arabia’s minister of foreign affairs, for a fireside chat at ECFR’s Annual Council Meeting. In Prince Faisal’s first public appearance since the Iran-US memorandum of understanding was announced, he and Julien discuss what the deal means for the prospect of stability in the Middle East. Prince Faisal argues that the memorandum presents an important opportunity to end the conflict and create a diplomatic path forward. While he welcomes efforts to address Iran’s nuclear programme, he stresses that long-term verification mechanisms, freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and a broader regional security dialogue are essential to building confidence and preventing future crises. He also warns that recent attacks have created a deep trust deficit between Iran and its Gulf neighbours, making any meaningful economic rapprochement a long-term challenge. Julien and Prince Faisal explore Saudi Arabia’s role in supporting diplomacy between Washington and Tehran, the need to balance deterrence with diplomatic engagement, and how regional actors can rebuild trust after the conflict. They also discuss Israel’s opposition to the agreement, the future of Gaza, the importance of a political horizon for Palestinians and whether military approaches alone can deliver long-term security in the Middle East. Is the Iran-US agreement a foundation for a more durable regional security framework? How can Iran and its neighbours rebuild trust? What role should the US, Europe and Middle Eastern powers play in shaping the next phase of diplomacy? And is there still a viable path towards a broader political settlement in the Middle East? This episode was recorded on June 17th 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Carl Benedikt Frey, associate professor of AI and work at the Oxford Internet Institute and author of How Progress Ends: Technology, Innovation and the Fate of Nations, to discuss whether AI enthusiasm is obscuring a more fundamental problem: the global slowdown in productivity and innovation. Carl argues that technological progress is neither inevitable nor guaranteed. Despite rapid advances in computing, the internet and AI, productivity growth is stagnating. He suggests that innovation depends on the institutions, incentives and political conditions—as well as technological breakthroughs—that allow societies to adapt and scale new ideas. Mark and Carl explore what the rise of AI reveals about the changing balance between innovation and concentration, why China’s embrace of open-weight AI models could challenge American technological leadership, and why Europe continues to struggle in digital industries despite its strengths in manufacturing. Is AI about to unleash a new era of prosperity? Why has productivity growth remained weak despite decades of technological advances? What does the AI race mean for competition between the US, China and Europe? And is the greatest risk facing advanced economies the end of progress itself? This episode was recorded on April 30th 2026. Bookshelf Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative by Jennifer Burns Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Anton Jäger, lecturer in politics at Oxford University and author of Hyperpolitics: Extreme Politicization Without Political Consequences, to discuss why political engagement is surging across Western democracies—even as traditional political institutions continue to weaken. Anton argues that the West has entered a “hyperpolitics” era, marked by intense political engagement and protest but lacking durable organisations capable of sustaining change. Unlike the 1930s, to which the current era is often compared, today’s citizens are more politicised yet less likely to join institutions that enable long-term collective action. Mark and Anton explore how social media shapes political expression, why contemporary politics feels simultaneously more intense and less effective, and what figures like Donald Trump reveal about the relationship between political mobilisation and institutional power. They examine why right-wing movements appear to have adapted more successfully to the hyperpolitical age, and whether a new form of political organisation could eventually emerge from today’s fragmented landscape. What explains the growing gap between political engagement and political influence? Why are traditional institutions struggling to channel public discontent? Has the right found a more effective formula for the hyperpolitical era? And how could we move from hyperpolitics to a new age of institutional politics? This episode was recorded on March 27th 2026. Bookshelf: Hyperpolitics: Extreme Politicization without Political Consequences by Anton Jäger Nations and Nationalism by Ernest Gellner Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Liam Byrne, a British Labour Party MP and chair of the House of Commons Business and Trade Select Committee, to talk about the rise of right-wing populism across Europe and why mainstream politics is struggling to respond. Drawing on his new book, Why Populists are Winning and How to Beat Them, Byrne argues that widening wealth gap, declining local communities and broken promise of democracy have created fertile ground for populist movements. Together, Mark and Liam explore the different groups of voters supporting populist parties, the powerful networks funding and amplifying populist movements, and why mainstream parties may be making a strategic political mistake by chasing harder-line rhetoric. The conversation ultimately tackles why more voters are turning away from mainstream parties, the roles economic stagnation, cultural pessimism and immigration play in driving support for populists, and how wealthy donors, media ecosystems and digital platforms have reshaped populist discourse across Europe and beyond. Bookshelf Billionaire Backlash: The Age of Corporate Scandal and How it Could Save Democracy - Pepper Culpepper and Taeku Lee Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, and Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, to introduce ECFR’s Iran nuclear monitor. The new online tool, updated monthly, forecasts Iran’s nuclear programme after a year of Israeli and American strikes, and maps possible paths for future negotiations, inspections and escalation. Almost a year on from the first US and Israeli bombings of Iran, uncertainty is growing around the future of the country’s nuclear programme. With a fragile ceasefire in place, Mark, Kelsey and Ellie discuss the six scenarios outlined in the Iran nuclear monitor and whether Europe has a role in shaping negotiations. They also suggest that military strikes alone have not resolved the nuclear dilemma: instead, any durable agreement will likely depend on phased confidence-building, intrusive inspections and difficult political compromises on both sides. Together, they explore three critical questions shaping the future of peace negotiations: What will happen to Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium? Can Tehran and Washington overcome disagreements over uranium enrichment and the duration of a moratorium on Iran’s nuclear activities? And how can international inspectors rebuild monitoring after nearly a year without full access to Iran’s nuclear sites? The link to the Iran nuclear monitor could be reached here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Curtis Yarvin, American blogger and political thinker, to talk about the ideas reshaping parts of the American right and Silicon Valley. Known for his critiques of liberal democracy, bureaucracy and what he calls “the cathedral”, Yarvin reflects on his intellectual journey from libertarianism to monarchism and explains why some of his arguments have an audience among tech figures and Trump supporters. Together Mark and Curtis explore the growing alliance between parts of Silicon Valley and MAGA, and why he believes modern governments are too procedural and inefficient to cope with technological and political change. From AI and automation to the future of human labour, he argues that the 21st century will force societies to rethink the purpose of government and the structure of the economy itself. As debates around democracy, technology and elite power intensify, this episode asks: why are more people losing faith in liberal democratic institutions? And can modern governments function effectively in an age of technological transformation? Bookshelf The Machiavellians: Defenders of Freedom by James Burnham Latter-Day Pamphlets by Thomas Carlyle Popular Government by Henry Maine Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by David Runciman, British political theorist and philosopher, to explore whether today’s sense of crisis really marks the end of democracy—or something more complex. As the global order fragments, Runciman argues that democracy itself is not disappearing, but the forces shaping the world no longer fit the model that worked for the past 50 years. From shifting demographics and rising inequality, to a transforming technological landscape, together Mark and David explore why systems that once seemed stable are now under strain. In a world which is both more and less democratic, liberal states face pressure from within and without. Rather than predicting collapse, the discussion asks how democracies can evolve. What needs to change and what happens if it doesn’t? Bookshelf Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse by Luke Kemp Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Ayşe Zarakol, professor of international relations at Cambridge University, to explore whether today’s global crises signal disorder or a deeper shift toward “unorder,” where shared rules and assumptions are no longer relevant. Drawing on historical parallels—from the interwar period to the upheavals of the 17th century—Zarakol suggests that this may be the start of a longer era of fragmentation. Together, they examine what this means for Europe, from letting go of old ways of thinking to redefining its role in a more unpredictable world. Rather than restoring a fading order, the focus shifts to a more urgent scenario: what is worth preserving and how can Europe adapt to chaos to survive? This podcast episode was recorded on 26th of February. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week in London, Mark Leonard introduced his new book Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail and reflected on what it means to navigate a world in which old assumptions about rules-based order, power and international cooperation no longer hold. ECFR’s new weekly accompaniment podcast series “Surviving Chaos” will introduce the most interesting and controversial thinkers to explain the current period. The first episode brings together a conversation between Mark and Carl Bildt, former prime minister and former foreign minister of Sweden; Ivan Krastev, chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies; and Helle Thorning-Schmidt, former prime minister of Denmark, moderated by Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs commentator at the Financial Times. Opening the discussion, EU ambassador to the UK Pedro Serrano highlighted the importance of a strong and united Europe in defending peace, prosperity and democratic values, before the panel explored how policymakers can move from rigid grand strategies to more “artisan” approaches to power. They also considered whether the current moment represents a temporary crisis or a deeper rupture—and the impact on Europe’s security, economic model and political identity. From the future of the transatlantic relationship to the war in Ukraine, to AI surveillance and the Middle East, the discussion examined how global instability is impacting the choices facing European decision-makers. Drawing on Mark’s argument that the world is in an age of “unorder”, the speakers discussed the types of political imagination, resilience and practical action Europeans will need. The crucial question: How can Europe navigate chaos? Mark Leonard’s book Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail is now available in all bookstores and online. This episode will also be published on the EEAS website. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard speaks with Zsuzsanna Szelényi, a Hungarian politician and foreign policy specialist, about the forces behind Hungary’s historic political shift and what comes next for both the country and Europe. Together they explore how economic pressures, corruption scandals, and a newly mobilised electorate—especially younger voters—reshaped Hungary’s political landscape after 16 years. They also evaluate Magyar’s promises of reform, a reset with Europe and a more participatory role on key issues like Ukraine. What explains Orbán’s defeat? Can Magyar deliver real democratic change? And what does Hungary’s new direction mean for Europe and Ukraine? Bookshelf: Works of Zadie Smith, Ruth Ozeki and Sofi Oksanen This podcast was recorded on April 13th, 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

For the last few days, a set of pronouncements from the White House have filled the news regarding the war in Iran. President Donald Trump has gone from threatening to destroy an entire civilisation to negotiating a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, led by Pakistan. This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, senior associate fellow at ECFR and research fellow at the Brookings Institution, to discuss the current state of play. What does the ceasefire mean for the future of the Middle East and for American foreign policy? How will it impact Europe, and global security more generally? And will Trump make good on his threat to withdraw from NATO? This podcast was recorded on April 9th, 2026. Bookshelf: Mother Mary Comes to Me by Arundhati Roy The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny by Kiran Desai Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Szymon Kardaś, senior policy fellow in ECFR's European Power programme, to unpack how war in the Middle East is reshaping Europe’s energy landscape. While Europe is not heavily reliant on Middle Eastern imports directly, disruptions—especially around Qatar and the Strait of Hormuz—are pushing up global prices and intensifying competition with Asian buyers, exposing Europe’s deeper structural vulnerabilities. Together, Mark and Szymon explore the risk of renewed dependence on Russian energy, reliance on American LNG, and what this crisis reveals about Europe’s long-term energy strategy. As the conflict continues, the pressure is growing for Europe to accelerate its transition towards renewables and greater energy resilience. How exposed is Europe to the global energy fallout? What role does Qatar play in the current gas crisis? Could Europe return to Russian energy imports under pressure? And what policies are needed to reduce Europe’s long-term energy dependence? Bookshelf Recommendation Grzegorz Braun Gram vabank by Tomasz Sommer This podcast was recorded on April 1st 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova, co-director of ECFR’s European Security programme and senior policy fellow, to discuss how the war in Iran is reshaping Ukraine’s war effort. What began as cautious optimism in Kyiv has turned into concern, as American military resources—especially air-defence systems—are redirected to the Middle East, leaving Ukraine increasingly exposed to Russian attacks. Mark and Jana also explore the broader geopolitical fallout: stalled diplomacy, rising oil prices benefiting Russia and growing divisions within Europe that risk weakening support for Ukraine at a critical moment. The longer the Iran war continues, the more difficult Ukraine’s position becomes. What does the Iran war mean for Ukraine’s military position? How is US support being affected? Why does the conflict benefit Russia economically? And can Europe maintain a united stance on Ukraine? Bookshelf Recommendation Russia in 1839 by Astolphe de Custine This podcast was recorded on March 26, 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras, Carla Hobbs, Camille Lons, Jana Puglierin and Arturo Varvelli and to discuss how Europe is responding to the war in Iran. This week Mark Leonard records live from ECFR’s all-staff retreat in Sofia, bringing together colleagues from across the continent to unpack European reactions to the escalating conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. While some leaders have taken a firm stance against the war, others have shifted position and divisions are emerging across Europe. Why has Spain taken such a clear line against the conflict? How is Germany balancing its relationship with the US, Israel and Ukraine? What role is France seeking to play as a military and diplomatic actor? And how are countries like Italy and Poland navigating domestic pressures alongside their transatlantic ties? This podcast was recorded on March 20, 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Aziz Alghashian, senior non-resident fellow at the Gulf International Forum, Eran Etzion, former Israeli diplomat and deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council at the Pime Minister’s Office and Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme. Over the past couple of weeks, the US and Israel have continued attacking Iranian military and energy infrastructure, Iran has appointed a new Supreme Leader in Mojtaba Khamenei, oil prices have surged and Iran is targeting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. But amid all this activity, America’s war aims remain as unclear as ever, exacerbated by dozens of conflicting statements from President Trump and US senior officials. Together, Mark, Aziz, Eran and Ellie assess the state of the conflict in Middle East, focusing on the political climate in Iran, Israel and the Gulf states. Does Trump have a way out? Is there any path to de-escalation? For how long will the war last? And what does this mean for the Middle East—and for Europe? Bookshelf: A Kurdish Rebellion in Iran Could Be a Disaster – Ellie Geranmayeh Tomorrow is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine - Hussein Agha and Robert Malley This episode was recorded on March 12th 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week Mark Leonard speaks to Raja Mohan, academic and foreign policy analyst, in a podcast episode recorded live from New Delhi during the Raisina Dialogue conference. Together they explore how India views the current global moment: from the resilience of US autonomy to the diffusion of influence across emerging powers. Why has India’s relationship with the EU become more strategically important? How is New Delhi balancing ties with Beijing, Moscow and Washington while deepening economic integration with Western partners? And what role could India and Europe play together in shaping security, technology and connectivity across a wider “Indo-Mediterranean” region? This podcast was recorded on March 4 2026 in New Delhi during the Raisina Dialogue. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this emergency episode, Mark Leonard is joined by Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR’s research director, and Cinzia Bianco, ECFR visiting fellow, to discuss the dramatic escalation following a massive joint US–Israeli military operation against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure. What are Trump’s war aims and does he really seek regime change? Could Iran’s political system survive this shock, or is deeper transformation underway? How are Gulf states reacting as they find themselves on the front line? And with Europe largely sidelined so far, what role could or should Europeans play in preventing further escalation? This emergency episode was recorded on Sunday afternoon, 2pm UK time, as events continue to unfold. Trump’s strikes on Iran are an illegal war of choice—and Europeans should say so by Ellie Geranmayeh Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, negotiations are finally entering a productive phase. Mark Leonard is joined by Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, and author of the new report, “An Armed Nonalignment Model for Ukraine’s Postwar Security”, to examine Ukraine’s security status and US foreign policy towards it. Mark and Jennifer explore her proposal that Ukraine should position itself as an “armed nonalignment” state, the future of the transatlantic alliance, and America’s National Defense Strategy. Can Ukraine be nonaligned but also “armed to the teeth”? Could it become a porcupine that Russia cannot swallow? What should Europe and Ukraine do if future US foreign policy focuses more on the Indo-Pacific and the western hemisphere? Could Russia feasibly invade Ukraine again? And what happens if it does? Bookshelf An Armed Nonalignment Model for Ukraine’s Postwar Security by Jennifer Kavanagh The bear in the Baltics: Reassessing the Russian threat in Estonia by Jennifer and Jeremy Shapiro Season 4 of Bridgerton on Netflix Susie Wiles, JD Vance, and the “Junkyard Dogs”: The White House Chief of Staff on Trump’s Second Term (Part 1 of 2) by Vanity Fair Susie Wiles Talks Epstein Files, Pete Hegseth’s War Tactics, Retribution, and More (Part 2 of 2) by Vanity Fair This podcast was recorded on 30th January 2026 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week Mark Leonard is joined by Mark Malloch-Brown. Mark is the former president of the Open Society Foundations, former head of the United Nations Development Programme, formerly UN secretary general Kofi Annan’s chief of staff, and former UN deputy secretary general. From 2007-2009 he joined the British government of prime minister Gordon Brown as minister responsible for Africa and Asia. Together, Mark and Mark discuss how the role and impact of the Bretton Woods institutions, such as the World Bank and IMF, have changed. How can these institutions adapt to the rough-and-tumble world of 21st-century geopolitics—especially considering China’s increased support for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and projections that Asia will hold 50% of global GDP by 205? Is Mark Carney right that there is a rupture in the old order? How did the Bretton Woods institutions underpin the old order? Are the World Bank and IMF problematic and outdated? Is it possible to reinvent these institutions for a new era? Or is it better to work through new, more representative institutions? Bookshelf 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in History – and How It Shattered a Nation by Andrew Ross Sokin Facing Up to the Future: Navigating Disruption, Building Trust by Patrick Achi, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Mark Malloch-Brown News and reflections from Mark Malloch-Brown by Mark Malloch-Brown This episode was recorded on February 6th 2026 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this special episode of the World in 30 Minutes, Mark Leonard welcomes Editorial Director and Senior Policy Fellow Jeremy Cliffe, Senior Policy Fellow, Ulrike Franke, Distinguished Policy Fellow, Janka Oertel and Senior Policy Fellow, Majda Ruge live from the Munich Security Conference to unpack its biggest moments. Recording from the Bayerischer Hof Hotel in Munich, they reflect on Marco Rubio’s message to Europe, European leaders’ calls for greater autonomy, Zelensky’s intervention on Ukraine, and the shifting tone on China, NATO and tech regulation. Is the transatlantic relationship entering a new phase? Did Europe show unity or fragmentation? And what does the mood in Munich reveal about the future of security in 2026? This podcast was recorded live at the Munich Security Conference 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This episode features a live recording of a conversation between ECFR director Mark Leonard and US undersecretary of war for policy, Elbridge Colby, which took place during the Munich Security Conference 2026. Together, they discuss how ideas developed in think-tanks translate into government policy, and how the “America First” approach is shaping US national security priorities. Mark and Elbridge examine NATO’s evolution toward greater European responsibility, the challenge of turning higher defence spending into effective military capability, and the continued importance of nuclear deterrence. They also discuss support for Ukraine, rising concerns about China’s military posture, efforts to counter Iran, and the strategic role of the US–Israel relationship, before looking ahead to the trade-offs and priorities likely to define American strategy in the coming years. This podcast was recorded on February 13th 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Tiago Antunes, Portugal’s former secretary of state for European affairs and senior visiting fellow at ECFR, and Jim O’Brien, former US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, to reflect on the recent transatlantic crisis over Greenland. After meetings in Copenhagen with Danish and Greenlandic leaders, and Tiago’s visit to Nuuk, Mark discusses with him and Jim how tensions escalated, why they were diffused at Davos, and what lessons Europe can draw from the episode. What mood are the Danes in? How do they assess Trump’s motivations? Has the crisis brought Greenlanders closer to Denmark? And how did Denmark go about building European unity to oppose Donald Trump’s moves? Bookshelf Indignity: Life Reimagined by Lea Ypi Everybody Loves Our Dollars by Oliver Bullough This episode was recorded on February 11th 2026 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Leonard is joined by Lea Ypi, ECFR council member and professor in political theory at the London School of Economics, to discuss her latest book Indignity: A Life Reimagined, which asks how individuals can maintain their dignity in a totalitarian system. Mark and Lea delve into defining moments in global politics, from the 1920s to the post-cold war era. By reflecting on the past, they discuss how polarised modern politics can find a new path. How can the left counter the narratives of the new right? What does a revitalised left look like in Europe and beyond? Are the tragedies of 1920s and 1940s Albania, as experienced by Leman—grandmother of Lea Ypi and the book's protagonist— repeating themselves in Europe today? Do any parallels exist between then and now? And what lessons does this period hold for today? Bookshelf Indignity: A Life Reimagined by Lea Ypi The Overcoat by Nikolai Gogol This podcast was recorded on January 8th 2026 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Leonard is joined by Africa experts Nathalie Delapalme, CEO of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation and ECFR council member, Carlos Lopes, honourary professor at the University of Cape Town who has occupied prominent positions in the UN and African Union and Alex Vines, director of ECFR’s Africa programme. Together, they explore how the European policies on critical raw minerals and energy should evolve in relation to Africa’s economic growth, the needs of younger generation and China’s presence in the region. They also outline which topics are key to understanding the EU-AU relationship. How can Europe support Africa’s climate and energy goals without recreating patterns of conditionality or dependency? What impact will the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism have on African economies? With multiple global powers seeking influence in Africa, how should Europe reposition itself as a partner of choice? And how does China’s cooperation with Africa impact Europe? Bookshelf The Hour of the Predator: Encounters with the Autocrats and Tech Billionaires Taking Over the World by Giuliano Da Empoli African Europeans: An Untold History by Olivette Otélé Fareed’s take: World countering Trump with shrewd moves Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In an emergency podcast episode, Mark Leonard welcomes James Crabtree, ECFR distinguished visiting fellow and former Mumbai bureau chief for the Financial Times, to discuss the long-awaited EU-India trade deal. The agreement, nearly 20 years in the making, was signed in New Delhi by Ursula von der Leyen, Antonio Costa and Narendra Modi, and has been dubbed the “mother of all deals”. It aims to integrate two massive markets—representing a quarter of the global population—slash tariffs, boost services trade and reduce dependencies on China and the US. Mark and James explore India’s strategic pivot amid US tariffs, the potential for deeper defence and tech ties, and Europe’s quest for autonomy in a multipolar world. Is this a game-changer for global trade flows? Can Europe and India forge a true superpower partnership, or will domestic politics and external pressures derail progress? And is this the birth of a new geopolitical axis? This podcast was recorded on January 28, 2026. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Mark Leonard sits down with Finnish president, Alexander Stubb, in Davos for a conversation about Donald Trump’s view of Ukraine, Greenland, the world and Europe’s place in it. They explore the clash between advocates of multipolarity and those resisting it, and how this battle is reshaping global power. Together, they reflect on the shifting idea of the West and the challenge of preserving a pragmatic, values based transatlantic relationship. They also explore Finland’s place in this rapidly evolving landscape including the impact of Trump’s sights on Greenland and the war in Ukraine. Bookshelf Peacemaker: U Thant and the Forgotten Quest for a Just World by Thant Myint-U The Triangle of Power: Rebalancing the New World Order by Alex Stubb * please note there were technical issues during the recording Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Protests across Iran have entered their third week and Donald Trump is said to be considering a military intervention against the Khamenei regime. According to human rights organisations, its brutal crackdown against demonstrators has led to at least 2,500 deaths, as well as an internet blackout and mass arrests. This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, to discuss the Iranian protests, what a military intervention by Trump could look like and how Iranians are reacting to the political turmoil. Could Trump feasibly intervene in Iran? What are his options? How do the current protests differ from those staged after the death of Jina Mahsa Amini? What role could Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, play in a potential regime change? And how does Iran’s nuclear programme fit into all of this? This podcast was recorded on Thursday 15, January 2026. Bookshelf It Was Just an Accident by Jafar Panahi Taraneh: A Documentary by BBC Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Following on from January 2nd’s prediction episode, Mark Leonard hosts Julien Barnes-Dacey, ECFR’s Middle East programme director, Alex Vines, ECFR’s Africa programme director, Andrew Small, ECFR’s Asia programme director, and Jana Kobzová, co-director of ECFR’s European Security programme, to discuss what challenges Europe should focus on in 2026. How will global politics shift in 2026? Will we finally see an end to the war in Ukraine? How are the ongoing protests in Iran affecting the likelihood of an Israeli attack? What’s next for the Gaza peace deal? What are the major points of conflict that will shape Africa this year? And will Europeans finally confront China’s growing influence? Bookshelf The War Came to Us: Life and Death in Ukraine by Christopher Miller Indignity: A Life Reimagined by Lea Ypi Transformed by the People: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Road to Power in Syria by Patrick Haenni and Jerome Drevon Sahel: The Perfect Storm by Morten Bøås China’s Economy: Rightsizing 2025, Looking Ahead to 2026 by Daniel H. Rosen, Logan Wright, Oliver Melton and Jeremy Smith (Rhodium Group) This podcast was recorded on January 8th 2026 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On January 3rd, the US military struck Venezuela and captured its president, Nicolás Maduro. Trump has declared that America will now “run” the country, shifting from a narrative which had focused on the US fighting a war against drug traffickers to a narrative which sees the US assert control over Venezuela’s massive oil reserves. Mark Leonard is joined by Jeremy Shapiro, ECFR research director, and Nacho Torreblanca, ECFR distinguished policy fellow, to discuss why America decided to capture Maduro and what this could mean for the domestic situation in Venezuela—as well as its wider implications for other areas, including Greenland. What were Trump’s motivations? Will the US increasingly use military force to secure resources and territory across the Americas and the north Atlantic? And could Greenland be next? Bookshelf Morir en la arena (To Die in the Sand) by Leonardo Padura The Revolutionary Temper: Paris, 1748-1789 by Robert Darnton This podcast was recorded on January 5th 2026 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week Mark Leonard is joined by Jeremy Shapiro, research director at ECFR, for their annual end-of-year tradition: marking last year’s predictions and making ten bold forecasts for the year ahead. They look at how their 2025 calls stacked up—from Trump to German politics to Ukraine, China and migration—before turning their attention to 2026. Will the European far right continue its advance? Is an uneasy ceasefire in Ukraine finally within reach? How might US policy on Iran, China and Europe evolve under Trump? And what role will AI, energy security and debt crises play in shaping the year to come? This podcast was recorded on December 30th 2025. Bookshelf The Dream Factory: London’s First Playhouse and the Making of William Shakespeare by Daniel Swift Ones and Tooze by Adam Tooze Wer verteidigt Europa?: Die neuen Kriegsgefahren und was wir tun müssen, um uns zu schützen by Jana Puglierin Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics when the rules fail by Mark Leonard (April 2026) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.